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The theory of probability |
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The probability of hypergeometric distribution
The formula is also known as the probability of exactly M successes of K elements drawn in a pool of S favorable elements from a total of N elements. For example, a lotto 6/49 game. The lottery commission draws exactly 6 winning numbers. The player must play 6 numbers per ticket, but the player has the latitude to select from a preferred pool of numbers (e.g. 12 numbers with good frequency). The question becomes: What is the probability of getting exactly 5 winners out of 6 in my pool of 12 numbers from a total of 49 lotto numbers? The formula of probability of hypergeometric distribution answers a question that sounds very complicated, but mostly because of wording.
P(m of k in s from n) = ---------------------------- C(s, m) * C(n-s, k-m) The 'hypergeometric distribution probability' formula has certain restrictions. They are nasty, especially for a computer programmer trying to implement probability algorithms. Some cases are logically impossible; e.g. '1 of 6 in 10 from 10'. |